Helen Pillar - SMSP Spring Seminar Series 2025

Abstract: A defining aspect of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports (AR) is a formal uncertainty language framework that emphasizes higher certainty issues, especially in the executive summaries and short summaries for policymakers. As a result, potentially significant risks involving understudied components of the climate system are shielded from view. One critically important component currently underrepresented in policy considerations is the deep ocean, which plays a pivotal role in our climate system owing to its vast reservoir capacities and residence timescales. Whilst available evidence points to significant and concerning deep ocean changes underway, large uncertainties are hindering the creation of evidence-based policies and regulations. Additional emerging anthropogenic stressors highlight the urgent need to address deep ocean science gaps to support effective management and mitigate harm.