Faculty member in the disaster research. He's also the director of the Tare Center, which is a Delaware Department of Transportation entity that really does outreach. His research ranges from interdependencies and disasters through optimization and intelligent transportation systems, and he's going to talk about detrita and autonomous vehicles, and he does not have. Sorry. I. Thank you. A couple of things when I am going to talk about this, but as I was putting this together, my at ADD kicked in and suddenly I'm going, what about this and what about that? And so I'm going to go there's going to be some breath here stuff. I could almost call myself Til Vars part two. Some things. So putting this together, I also thought about that the Transportation Research Board is about to celebrate the hundredth anniversary. 2021 will be the 100 iversary, the annual meeting. So flashback 100 years that we could have certainly had a meeting very similar to this with engineers and planners in a room looking at the edge of the new urban landscape. What was coming because we were at the transition from horse drawn, electric trolleys, things like this within cities to the age of the automobile. How are these cities going to need to evolve and what was going to come? And we are again at that, now we're transitioning to some called evolutionary, we could called revolutionary, but we are going to go to the drivers vehicle world, and what do we have to start thinking about? So I'm looking going to look at the urban and suburban landscape, things that need to be studied, policies that need to be discussed, both from the technical side, but mostly from the policy side of what are we going to do and how is what's coming? So start with one of the favorite revenue sources of both cities, most urban areas, parking. Parking meters, parking fines are a revenue source that under most autonomous vehicle models will go away. We will end up with something more similar to an airport where we will have loading zones, you know, a zone for the loading and unloading of passengers. The car will pull up, drop you off, and that will be it. And then your car will go off somewhere. But we haven't decided where yet, which leads us to the other thing. What about our parking garages? Will they just become the home hive of this per fleet of autonomous vehicles? Or are they going to be repurposed? What is going to happen to all that real estate? Will that suddenly become residential commercial space, and we move the parking way outside the urban boundary? We don't know. So what about our road system? We have a system been well designed for the safety of pedestrians and cyclists and vehicles, of various sizes and weights and all sorts of things. The vehicle I currently own has a lane keeping system in it, uses cameras, uses the lane markings. But every now and then, it has a little minty nervous breakdown because it rains hard. The markings flood up? Those markings have smalls, class so that help see the visibility goes away. The system turns off. So do we need a new alternative, magnetic, something that a vehicle could sense in place of those lane margins? And what are we going to do? A lot of people are talking about better lanes are going to get smaller. Because these vehicles will do better at lane keeping? Well, that's not going to apply to trucks. So we have car lanes, truck lanes, what will we do then? Then I grew up in Maine, and when it snows, there are no lane markings. So will the Uga fleet of the future just pull over to the side and wait for the autonomous snowplow to come. And hopefully we get black pavement, so we have the pavement markings again, or what do we do? What do we do when the line marquee is just worn away due to snow plows or environments and all stuff? How's the vehicle going to react every time that happens? And a to Road network, according to federal highway data, A 35% of our network is gravel. And that number in my estimation, and my colleagues across the country in the TAP program, that number is not going down. Counties and communities are being forced into depavd. Pave roads are turning back to gravel. They don't have the funds to maintain them. What are going to be the center line and edge line markings on unpaved roads? That should be. We can't just sub they ignore a third of our road system. Our sign inventory mats date can probably be retired. We can replace them with electronic dots on electronic mats. But our bike and pedestrian community are probably still going to need some them. So we need to proceed carefully. But then there's the need for signs when we have work zones, detours, things like that. Are we going to hope that work zone got entered into some huge database somewhere and that all the vehicles got the update that morning. So they know where all of these things are, or are we going to need a new system that alerts these vehicles to detours and parades and work zones? I don't know. And to the pedestrian behavior part, I get back to. You Delaware is unfortunate that we have one of the highest pedestrian fatality rates per capita in the country. We typically rank in the top three in the nation. Now, many of those fatalities here are happening on high speed multi lane roads, t 40, Carpoo Highway, ten, lots of places. Occasionally, I 95, if you can imagine a pedestrian attempting to cross 95. Autonomous vehicles with their better sensors and t ability to react, will help us with many of those issues. But what about the urban environment? We now have a, you know, a pedestrian comes they're walking along, they have some place they want to go. They can choose to use the signalized crosswalk if it's nearby, or they can cross where they are. They do a quick risk reward calculation. What is the chance that I will be injured or killed versus the benefit, the reward side of not having to walk the crosswalk? And in an urban area like Newport, drivers come to expect anything. But now, if we go to a fully autonomous fleet, I changed the paradigm. I changed the risk reward calculation because the risk is gone. The vehicle can no longer hit the pedestrian. So now, does Main Street Delaware Avenue become a giant pedestrian mall, and vehicle speed goes to zero because we have placed no restrictions. We could look at barriers like we used in some places in Newark with little chains and post or you could go to the extreme case in Las Vegas where they guide pedestrians in certain places that they want them? But then that upset Our other model being able to drop off passengers. So there's lots of issues coming, lots of things, and lots of questions to solve. Okay. Comment. So I'm curious. Poss that you would that all the parties go? Yes. And if that happens, then it can take a long time rate for your car to com I want to get a Pz rate and then you dial your car pisa. And then it will take a long time to the car and go. So if that happens, short range trips, like how for Pizza be more likely to happen. W people be more likely to. It could be more likely to be in with some of the stuff I've read and fil and I talked about this also. There's kind of a couple of ownership models. You know, in rural areas, it's not going to be the Uber plea. There's not going to be this rotating set of automated taxi kind of service that will be in the urban areas where there's high population densities. So it's going to be this mix of personally owned Uber car that I send somewhere, home or by spouse to use or by kids to use and all of those issues, or the environment of what's going on in the in the urban center. We could urge we home would urge bikes and is, and they're going to need sensors. There's going to need to be transmitters on the bikes in the urban planes to know that they're in sense what they're doing and possibly help you help. So there's again, it's all really to me it all centers on the ownership model, what ownership model is adopted, who owns the cars That's what drives the revenue, that's drive. Okay. With the focus on Thomas vehicles and it sounds like most of the discussions are about a one to replacement on current amount of vehicles, do you think it would be better to potentially elevate the le pedestrian bicyclist personal and create pedestrian malls instead of I think it's a great option. We have become this car dependent society, and that's why this is such an interesting transition to me because we have the opportunity to rewrite that. I just don't know how willing people are going to be. And the problem is going to be to me. The problem is that 40 or 50 years of transition where we have old fence of cars on the road. You know, if we could just legislate and say in 2030, there you take your car off the road, you sell it, do whatever will junk it, and you've got to buy an autonomous, so we could have that smooth transition. The mixed world, the the ability of an autonomous car to respond to a human driver's actions is going to be that's the real scare report to me. But I think certainly I mean, this is where we're going to look at what we're going to do. What's the city going to become? And how is all this going to work? Where's the loading zones going to be? Are they going to be in front of every building, or are we going with here walking? A lot of opportunities. I think as we speak, there is no better area of research for spoken by a true transportation. The academia is excited, they're over excited. And then every time I talk to my grands I put. They tell me there are so many issues of which you just wanted and that's just on my big report is right now. All right. So with the next two I also continue to I hope the conversation will continue.
Earl (Rusty) Lee: Pedestrian Behavior and Autonomous Vehicles
From Victoria Tosh-Morelli August 15, 2024
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Any time a pedestrian crosses the street outside of a signalized crosswalk, they are making a risk-reward mental calculation. Are the benefits of crossing at this location and not proceeding to a signalized crosswalk greater than the risk of injury or death? They hope that drivers are being attentive and that vehicles are properly maintained so that the driver will not collide with them. In many cases, this risk is what keeps pedestrians on sidewalks, because drivers do not expect to see them in the roadway. In areas like Newark, the large student population and frequent street crossings keep drivers more attentive and expecting anything. But how will this risk reward calculation change in the presence of autonomous vehicles. Pedestrians know that the vehicle is programmed to not hit them. With no reliance on human drivers and faster perception-reaction times, will pedestrians tend to exhibit riskier behavior. The benefits outside of urban areas will be obvious. Pedestrian injuries and deaths should drop to nearly zero. But in urban areas, less risk could result in more frequent pedestrian crossings turning city streets into pedestrian malls. Will the urban landscape need to change to prevent pedestrian crossings at unintended locations?
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